Scotland’s Education System Faces Decline in Teacher Numbers, Rising Class Sizes, and Persistent Absenteeism

Newly released data on Scotland’s education system paints a worrying picture of declining teacher numbers, growing class sizes, and persistent pupil absenteeism. These trends highlight deeper issues within the sector, sparking questions about the Scottish Government's commitment to education and its capacity to maintain the quality of learning for the nation’s children.

With fewer teachers, larger class sizes, and a declining proportion of teacher probationers securing jobs, it’s clear that Scotland’s education system is facing mounting pressure. Here's a closer look at the key figures and what they reveal about the state of the system.

The number of full-time equivalent (FTE) teachers in Scotland dropped to 53,412, down 621 from the previous year. While pupil numbers also fell by 3,100, the pace of teacher departures outstripped the decline in student numbers, leading to an increase in the Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) from 13.2 to 13.3.

On paper, this may seem like a marginal shift, but in practice, it means larger class sizes and fewer teachers available to give pupils individual support. The overall average class size in primary schools rose from 23.2 to 23.3, another sign that pressure is mounting within classrooms.

This is not just a numbers game. Larger class sizes mean that teachers have less time to devote to each pupil. For children who require additional support, such as those with additional support needs (ASN), this can have a serious impact on their learning outcomes. It also increases teacher stress, which could, in turn, exacerbate teacher attrition rates.

For newly qualified teachers, the future is looking far less certain. The percentage of Teacher Induction Scheme probationers who secured a teaching role (permanent or temporary) in the year following their probation period has dropped from 71% to 65%.

For those unfamiliar with the system, probationers are newly qualified teachers who complete a probationary period of teaching before moving into a full role. The fact that only 65% of these probationers now find work is a troubling signal that the system may not be able to absorb the new talent it is producing. This raises questions about workforce planning, especially when the total number of teachers is already in decline.

If newly qualified teachers are not being hired, where is the shortfall in teacher numbers coming from? Are experienced teachers retiring, or is there a broader problem with teacher retention? If schools cannot offer jobs to the newest recruits, then this could lead to a skills drain, as talented probationers seek work in other sectors or abroad.

Another area of concern is pupil attendance. While attendance rates for 2023/24 increased slightly to 90.3% (up from 90.2% the previous year), this remains the second-lowest attendance rate since 2003/04.

More concerning is the rate of persistent absence, where pupils miss 10% or more of the school year. The figure for 2023/24 is a shocking 31.4%, meaning almost one in three pupils is persistently absent. For context, 10% of a school year equates to 19 or more missed school days.

High absenteeism has a direct impact on educational attainment, particularly for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Long-term absenteeism is associated with poorer academic outcomes, lower employment prospects, and higher chances of disengagement from education altogether. It also places an additional burden on schools, which must allocate resources to track, engage, and support absent pupils.

The reasons for this surge in absenteeism are complex. They could relate to mental health issues, chronic illness, or disengagement linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted learning routines and led to higher levels of student anxiety.

The early learning sector, often seen as the foundation of Scotland’s education system, is also facing challenges. The number of staff involved in delivering funded Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) services has dropped slightly from the previous year, with 5,860 graduate-level staff and staff working towards graduate qualifications. This is down 46 FTE from 2023.

While not a dramatic fall, the decline could signal early cracks in the government’s commitment to fully funded childcare places for all three and four-year-olds. The number of children registered for ELC dropped from 92,182 in 2023 to 90,321 in 2024, with a decrease in uptake from 97% to 95% for three- and four-year-olds.

While the Scottish Government has long touted the value of its expansion of funded childcare as part of its "No One Left Behind" strategy, this decline could suggest that some parents are either unaware of their entitlements or face logistical barriers to accessing childcare. Childcare providers, meanwhile, may be struggling to retain qualified staff due to the sector’s traditionally low pay and high workload.

The percentage of two-year-olds registered for ELC remains at 13%, but this only represents about 59% of those eligible. If only half of eligible two-year-olds are benefiting from funded childcare, then questions must be asked about how well the policy is working for the most disadvantaged families.

Taken together, these figures reveal a system under pressure. The Scottish Government has repeatedly highlighted its commitment to reducing inequality and promoting child welfare, but it is clear that the fundamentals of the education system are weakening.

Fewer teachers, larger classes, and persistent absenteeism are not just bad optics; they have real, tangible impacts on children’s ability to learn. Lower probationer employment rates suggest that future recruitment issues may not be resolved, and the fact that ELC uptake is down indicates that one of Scotland’s flagship policies may not be delivering on its promise.

While there are glimmers of hope, like the rise in graduate-level ELC staff, the system as a whole seems to be moving in the wrong direction. If the goal is to close the attainment gap and create a more equitable education system, then it’s clear that something needs to change. The pupil-teacher ratio must be stabilised, efforts must be made to address absenteeism, and the transition from teacher probation to employment needs to be addressed.

Investment alone will not solve this crisis. Without a plan to keep experienced teachers in the classroom, recruit new teachers, and ensure job security for probationers, the system will remain in a state of flux. Scotland’s students deserve better, and so do its teachers.

Full Numbers Breakdown - https://www.gov.scot/collections/school-education-statistics/#summarystatisticsforschoolsinscotland